Why Jim Chalmers is cautious but upbeat

There were no bold declarations about corners being turned or missions being accomplished.After delivering a pre-election prediction that "the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us", only to see inflation then steadily rise, Jim Chalmers is now more cautious.Yet the treasurer was undeniably upbeat yesterday It follows Saudi claims of attacks on its oil facilities by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.The second risk to domestic inflation, as Richardson sees it, is the government itself.If inflation is seen to be easing, will the government feel it has more wiggle room to "spend into the gap"?Whether it's energy rebates, fuel excise relief, student debt relief, cheaper medicines, or tax cuts, Labor has taken pride in its willingness to spend, even if critics say it's only made the inflation problem worse.The decision to halt fuel excise relief this week, however, is a sign of some restraint.Despite the ongoing risk of another spike in oil prices, the treasurer was clear yesterday about the plan to phase out the remaining 16-cents-a-litre excise discount. "That fuel excise relief will end at midnight on Sunday," he said. The government needs inflation to keep falling without the headline rate being artificially forced lower by an expensive excise cut