Back in March, as the Iran conflict moved into full swing, Beijing banned the export of all refined fuel to safeguard its domestic supplies.That's been partially lifted, but only to the extent that refiners must maintain full stockpiles.Suddenly, China, Russia and the Persian Gulf — three of the world's biggest suppliers of refined fuel — are all offline.With Russia's refining capacity reduced to levels not seen since 2005, a flotilla of fully laden Russian tankers has found itself all at sea with nowhere to go.According to Bloomberg reports, about 135 million barrels of oil are stranded at sea, forcing authorities to divert the oil to other markets.Given Russian oil is under trade sanctions, that's no easy task But, while oil can be diverted to the Red Sea via pipelines, there's no such escape for refined product.Even if the war is brought to a sudden end, The Economist newspaper estimates that at least 1.4 million barrels a day of Gulf refining capacity has been hit, which could take months to repair.The damage to Russian refining capacity could be even more extensive.While crude oil prices remain only slightly elevated, Kavonic warns that the current price environment is unsustainable."It all comes back to the war," he says.If there is no resolution, Kavonic estimates crude prices will shoot towards $US130 a barrel.He's not alone.Earlier this week, Commonwealth Bank commodity analyst Vivek Dhar noted that while it might take about 10 weeks for the reduced Gulf output to be fully felt, without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, that could then push prices as high as $US150 a barrel.Either way, it simply is a question of time