The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sees three potential short-term economic futures for the nation: a baseline scenario and two substantially worse outcomes, with unemployment possibly rising to rates not seen since the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic.RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted in her speech yesterday that the Tuesday's 0.25 percentage point rate rise will have "no impact" on war-related inflationary pressures that are yet to be fully felt in Australia, and projected inflation will peak in June.However, Bullock warned in her speech on Tuesday that government spending to assist households would make it harder for the RBA to keep a handle on inflation.Treasurer Jim Chalmers, in responding to those comments on ABC News Breakfast on Wednesday, said that the budget will be "responsible" and will not include extra stimulus."The issue is the budget won't be pumping a lot of extra stimulus into the economy We are managing the budget in the most responsible way we can."These are the scenarios that predict major economic consequences in Australia.Rising fuel prices, driven by the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to oil infrastructure in Gulf nations, are the primary driver of inflation, the RBA says.This is both through "first order" effects, like an increase in petrol and diesel prices, and "second order" effects, such as the resulting increase in production costs for food and other items.The RBA's baseline forecast assumes that the worst of the disruptions to global energy supply are resolved by the end of the year